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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:15 pm 
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Arizona was 21st in attendance in 2016 as a 69 win team. As a playoff team in 2017 they were 20th. There doesn't seem to be a whole lot of incentive for ownership to increase payroll to put a competitive product on the field.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:50 am 
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The are two counterpoints

1 . fans here are rightfully skeptical until you have done it 2-3 years in a row.
Since 2002 the team made playoffs in 07 , 11, and 17. Last two times team sucked immediately after. So fans dont buy in.

2. There is a lag of a year for attendance boost. Season ticket sales wee significantly off last year due to 2016 season. The walkup was better though so allowed team to more or less maintain. This year the season ticket base should expand a bit. If they follow up with another playoff appearance and actually get to a world series attendance by 2019 would be in top 15 easily.

It takes sustained winning to build momentum. It takes investment to sustain winning. But its a gamble. More investment may not translate to more winning

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It's time for ownership to stop pretending they can't afford substantial payroll increases from recent levels. They absolutely can
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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:19 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
The are two counterpoints

1 . fans here are rightfully skeptical until you have done it 2-3 years in a row.
Since 2002 the team made playoffs in 07 , 11, and 17. Last two times team sucked immediately after. So fans dont buy in.

2. There is a lag of a year for attendance boost. Season ticket sales wee significantly off last year due to 2016 season. The walkup was better though so allowed team to more or less maintain. This year the season ticket base should expand a bit. If they follow up with another playoff appearance and actually get to a world series attendance by 2019 would be in top 15 easily.

It takes sustained winning to build momentum. It takes investment to sustain winning. But its a gamble. More investment may not translate to more winning


Totally agree on attendance as a lagging indicator of success. I also agree you have to gamble and front the investment to get the potential attendance bump. However, normally that necessary investment and gamble is long term because you typically don't get great players on short deals. This lines up perfect due to all of the expiring deals after 18' and the possibility to get JDM for 1 yr. You get to to make the gamble and see if it pays off in attendance and wins, but don't have to make the long term investment typically necessary to do it. The risk of long term is totally mitigated. It's really a unique situation given all of the short term deals on the books and the JDM opportunity. No brainer if it can be done.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:53 am 
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Since 2005 AZ's attendance has hovered between 2 and 2.5 million (mostly closer to 2) and their league ranking from 11th to 14th. There are three 90+ win seasons (with accompanying playoff births) during that time. You're right, there isn't a sustained level of success, but the last time they've sniffed 3 million is 2002 (the bump after wining the World Series). If the only bump you're going to get is by winning a World Series, and the cost of competing consistently at that level is astronomical, ownership has seemingly determined it's just not worth it.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/team ... tend.shtml


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 9:24 am 
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If the D-backs are still proceeding with the humidor, isn't it a bad gamble for JDM to sign with Arizona on a one-year deal in 2018 should he choose that strategy? The humidor will negatively impact offense, but no one knows precisely how it will play out on the field. His defense could look even worse depending on the adjusted BIP distribution and his bat could be disporoprtionately impacted as well. It seems to me that a key component of those deals is to stack the deck as much as possible in your favor (see: 2010 Beltre) in terms of playing environment. The D-backs don't project to have much of an offense in 2018 and the ballpark is a question mark as well.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 9:34 am 
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Strebor wrote:
If the D-backs are still proceeding with the humidor, isn't it a bad gamble for JDM to sign with Arizona on a one-year deal in 2018 should he choose that strategy? The humidor will negatively impact offense, but no one knows precisely how it will play out on the field. His defense could look even worse depending on the adjusted BIP distribution and his bat could be disporoprtionately impacted as well. It seems to me that a key component of those deals is to stack the deck as much as possible in your favor (see: 2010 Beltre) in terms of playing environment. The D-backs don't project to have much of an offense in 2018 and the ballpark is a question mark as well.


Serious question here, is the humidor going to have THAT big of an effect? Is Chase all of a sudden going to be a middle of the league hitter's park? I kind of assumed it would make maybe a 5% difference or something like, still leaving Chase as a solid top 5 hitter's park, just not quite as ridiculously so.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:30 am 
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98dback wrote:
Serious question here, is the humidor going to have THAT big of an effect? Is Chase all of a sudden going to be a middle of the league hitter's park? I kind of assumed it would make maybe a 5% difference or something like, still leaving Chase as a solid top 5 hitter's park, just not quite as ridiculously so.

We don't know for sure. Even if it makes balls only travel 95% of the distance, it can turn home runs into doubles or outs. It can cause hitters and pitchers to adjust their approach. The publicly-available park factors are broad, dumb adjustments. Take Adrian Beltre as an example. Do you think he just forgot how to be an impact hitter it what should have been the prime of his career from 2005 - 2009, or did that ballpark disproportionately impact him as a hitter? Helton hit 27 HR at Coors the year before the humidor and 18 the next season. Those guys are/were smart hitters, who should have been well-equipped to make adjustments.

I'd be curious to know how much impact ball weight has on launch angle.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am 
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David B wrote:
Since 2005 AZ's attendance has hovered between 2 and 2.5 million (mostly closer to 2) and their league ranking from 11th to 14th. There are three 90+ win seasons (with accompanying playoff births) during that time. You're right, there isn't a sustained level of success, but the last time they've sniffed 3 million is 2002 (the bump after wining the World Series). If the only bump you're going to get is by winning a World Series, and the cost of competing consistently at that level is astronomical, ownership has seemingly determined it's just not worth it.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/team ... tend.shtml


The obvious answer is you are correct, the team has determined it's not worth the investment, ya know cuz they are not 100% committed to winning. They want to win,, sure. Who doesn't. But ownership is not singly focused on winning on the field. They could sell the Franchise tomorrow for 5-6 times what it was worth in 2004. But they want the cash flow too.

Wonder what the excuse will be after they get their new stadium with more luxury boxes and higher ticket prices ?

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It's time for ownership to stop pretending they can't afford substantial payroll increases from recent levels. They absolutely can
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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:04 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
The obvious answer is you are correct, the team has determined it's not worth the investment, ya know cuz they are not 100% committed to winning. They want to win,, sure. Who doesn't. But ownership is not singly focused on winning on the field. They could sell the Franchise tomorrow for 5-6 times what it was worth in 2004. But they want the cash flow too.

Wonder what the excuse will be after they get their new stadium with more luxury boxes and higher ticket prices ?

Coaches, managers, player injuries, lack of a winning culture, insufficient fan support, etc. Everything other than the two constants at the top of the organization.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 8:47 am 
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The Arizona Diamondbacks are the most persistent of the teams pursuing Machado, but no deal is close, sources say. via Ken Rosenthal's post on theathletic

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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:43 pm 
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misterx wrote:
The Arizona Diamondbacks are the most persistent of the teams pursuing Machado, but no deal is close, sources say. via Ken Rosenthal's post on theathletic


Imagine if somehow they pulled a Machado deal, then convinced JDM to join the dream team for a run year run. Again, you go all out for 1 season, then you can tear it down and start the rebuild with no long term damage financially. You probably could even get away with trading Goldy at that point to ramp up the rebuild. From a PR standpoint, they'd build a ton of necessary goodwill among the fanbase prior to the teardown if they did something like this. There's really no downside out of a year of elevated salary. Over 2 years you could even balance that out when you sell off guys like Goldy and end up below 100M while rebuilding. And you could always flip guys like JDM or Machado mid year if things weren't working. This makes too much sense if they can pull it off.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:06 pm 
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Except that Kendrick doesn't know how to either go all in for one year or do a tear down & rebuild. He's like most backward-thinking owners who fool themselves into thinking "our roster can compete" and always ends up being an average team, on average. He's a water-treader, that one. If they are trying to trade for Machado then JD is certainly not in the mix.

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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:58 pm 
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Oden wrote:
Except that Kendrick doesn't know how to either go all in for one year or do a tear down & rebuild. He's like most backward-thinking owners who fool themselves into thinking "our roster can compete" and always ends up being an average team, on average. He's a water-treader, that one. If they are trying to trade for Machado then JD is certainly not in the mix.


My assumption is that Hazen knows what he's doing and is in Ken's ear. Not suggesting that ken suddenly changed.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:19 pm 
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Right, we have Hazen going for us, but it's still the same owner. As long as he signs the checks yada yada yada.

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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:47 am 
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Oden wrote:
Right, we have Hazen going for us, but it's still the same owner. As long as he signs the checks yada yada yada.


Right, but your argument suggests it won't happen due to ken as if I'm dreaming these scenarios up. I'm not. Rosenthal reported we're the most persistent team after Machado. I'm assuming his info is legit. I'm also assuming Hazen is running this stuff by KK as he goes. Gambo reported on the 1 year JDM option. Again, legit source reporting this, not me. He's obviously heard this from both sides as being possible. And if I recall, KK signed a guy to the largest contract in baseball history a few years ago. You can argue that it wasn't a wise move, but in my opinion boxing him in and saying you know what he will do isn't as easy as you make it seem. He's done some cheap stuff but he'll also surprise at times with some impulsive moves. What I like now is that his out of the box moves will be guided by a smart guy in Hazen.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:49 am 
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I never suggested that you're dreaming anything up and I'm not arguing anything. I stated that Ken won't add a ton of payroll to keep both Machado and JD. Ken has a track record that shows what kind of owner he is. Signing Greinke isn't the important part of that deal. It was keeping payroll the same in spite of it that is where he showed his stripes. He will never go all in, one year or otherwise.

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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:49 pm 
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It wouldn't be hard for AZ to acquire Machado. They just need to agree to include Lamb in the deal. That's who Baltimore is holding out for.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:04 pm 
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I just hope this doesn't turn into another Haren/Cahill-Kubel type scenario.

(flukey winning season, followed by dumb trades. I realize Kubel was a signing.)

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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:20 pm 
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Justin wrote:
I just hope this doesn't turn into another Haren/Cahill-Kubel type scenario.

(flukey winning season, followed by dumb trades. I realize Kubel was a signing.)


With Hazen in the GM seat I'm confident that something that dumb won't happen again.

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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:05 pm 
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McCutcheon to the Giants. Division just got tougher. Hazen, it's your turn to make a move...


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