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 Post subject: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:22 am 
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So, Rays may be making Chris Archer available, at least according to Jon Heyman

He's on a very team friendly deal, Rays have 4 years of control for 34M, ages 29-32, and advanced metrics suggest he's pitched better than his ERA and W-L results the last 3 years. Problems the last 2 years with the gopher ball have hurt him though.

Logan Morrison is a free agent, so they may be interested in Jake Lamb, with the idea to have him go to first base. Anthony Banda, the teams top SP pitcher prospect would have to be included too.

Lamb/Banda/ + ___?___ for Archer too steep ? Not enough ? Wet dream ?

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:32 am 
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I still have night mares about the Shelby Miller deal.

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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:41 am 
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The package I just proposed is probably less value than the Miller deal, and Archer is better pitcher than Miller.

Ender was already proven valuable outfielder, having posted 3.7 an 5.3 WAR, total 9 WAR for the D Backs in his first two seasons before being traded. Ender for Miller straight up, 1 for 1 was already more than enough. Throwing in your #1 pick, and at the time, your best SP prospect, even though Blair hasn't worked out, he had value at time of the trade.....

Lamb has just 5.8 WAR for his career in 3+ seasons, and Banda probably equal to Blair. So I'm probably already way too lite in my offer.

The question is who would the 3rd player have to be to get TB on the hook.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:55 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
The package I just proposed is probably less value than the Miller deal, and Archer is better pitcher than Miller.

Ender was already proven valuable outfielder, having posted 3.7 an 5.3 WAR, total 9 WAR for the D Backs in his first two seasons before being traded. Ender for Miller straight up, 1 for 1 was already more than enough. Throwing in your #1 pick, and at the time, your best SP prospect, even though Blair hasn't worked out, he had value at time of the trade.....

Lamb has just 5.8 WAR for his career in 3+ seasons, and Banda probably equal to Blair. So I'm probably already way too lite in my offer.

The question is who would the 3rd player have to be to get TB on the hook.


Who plays 3B then? Drury? Losing Lamb and JD out of the lineup and we're all of a sudden much weaker offensively.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:56 am 
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Arizona already has five SP better than Archer. I'm not enthusiastic about a guy who has been as consistently hittable as him, particularly in front of Arizona's garbage defense.

Can't imagine the Rays are terribly excited about the prospect of giving up anything of value in order to play Lamb at first and for a limited upside pitcher like Banda as the main prizes.

I think Arizona will receive far better value for their "money" if they try to improve the position players rather than the rotation.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:18 pm 
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Arizona's rotation is sure to regress. Not only will they not repeat 130 ERA+, they are a long shot to repeat 110. I don't think it will be bad, but it won't lead the league again.

Corbin is arb 3. He is trade bait. And he is definitely not better than archer, by any measure.

As for Archer being hittable, he has never allowed more hits than IP in any season, and his hit's per 9 for career is only 8.0

Last two seasons, he has given up a lot of homers, thats true. But his career ERA/FIP/xFIP triple slash is 3.63/3.46/3.43

He's signed for 4 years, 34 million. I still can't believe you think Corbin is better than Archer......LOL

As for Lamb.......he was only worth 1.4 WAR last year, 2.6 the year before that. It's probably time to move him.

His up and down halves, poor defense, and bad platoon splits have eroded his value to the point where over the last two years he has been averaged 2 WAR with a 112 OPS+.

BUT because of the homers, he's gonna get paid in arbitration. Now is the last chance to "sell high" on Jake Lamb.

Move Drury to 3rd, play him every day, make the position his and he will end up giving you the same 2 WAR as Lamb for 1/10th the cost.

If you make the Archer trade I'm proposing, and move Corbin, your rotation is going to project better, and you have saved about 12 Million in payroll that you can use towards "other things".

You have Marte/Ahmed/Owings to play at SS and 2b.

Anyway, I'm pipe dreaming. Lamb + Banda + whatever is not enough to get Archer.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:42 am 
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I make that trade IF the Dbacks can dump Greinke. With Greinke's contract, the current roster, and the $$ restrictions, making a strong push for the playoffs would be like raking leaves during a hurricane.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:55 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
Arizona's rotation is sure to regress. Not only will they not repeat 130 ERA+, they are a long shot to repeat 110. I don't think it will be bad, but it won't lead the league again.

Corbin is arb 3. He is trade bait. And he is definitely not better than archer, by any measure.

As for Archer being hittable, he has never allowed more hits than IP in any season, and his hit's per 9 for career is only 8.0

Last two seasons, he has given up a lot of homers, thats true. But his career ERA/FIP/xFIP triple slash is 3.63/3.46/3.43

He's signed for 4 years, 34 million. I still can't believe you think Corbin is better than Archer......LOL

As for Lamb.......he was only worth 1.4 WAR last year, 2.6 the year before that. It's probably time to move him.

His up and down halves, poor defense, and bad platoon splits have eroded his value to the point where over the last two years he has been averaged 2 WAR with a 112 OPS+.

BUT because of the homers, he's gonna get paid in arbitration. Now is the last chance to "sell high" on Jake Lamb.

Move Drury to 3rd, play him every day, make the position his and he will end up giving you the same 2 WAR as Lamb for 1/10th the cost.

If you make the Archer trade I'm proposing, and move Corbin, your rotation is going to project better, and you have saved about 12 Million in payroll that you can use towards "other things".

You have Marte/Ahmed/Owings to play at SS and 2b.

Anyway, I'm pipe dreaming. Lamb + Banda + whatever is not enough to get Archer.

Well, "better" was hyperbole for effect. Arizona did have five starters who out-WARed/WAAed Archer last year, though.

Archer has posted a negative WAA in each of the last two years, which were his age-27 and 28 seasons. These are his prime years and he's demonstrated that he can't adjust to whatever changes have happened to the ball. The guy's been pretty much a textbook LAIM in terms of his net results for his last 400 innings of work. Perhaps the humidor in Arizona would keep enough of his home runs in the park, but he'd also be adding an extra thousand feet in elevation to his home park. I'm not optimistic. It's an even bigger issue given that 17 of his 27 HR allowed in '17 were on the road and 20 of the 30 in '16 were on the road. Chase has caused more than a handful of LAIM-types to implode upon arrival. The Rays have also had a better defense than Arizona the last two years. I think he's more likely to get worse with a move to Arizona than he is to turn back into his 2015 self. Tampa Bay has more data on Archer than anybody and they're apparently willing to move a 29-year-old on a team-friendly deal. That gives me signficant pause in and of itself.

I don't think acquiring starting pitching is the most efficient or stable way to upgrade the D-backs. Position players are where the team has black holes - C, LF - and mediocrities - 2B, SS, 3B, CF, RF - that can be upgraded for less than it would cost to add comparable improvement in the rotation. Philosophically, I don't tend to get too excited about acquiring LAIM-types. At best, those guys are fine if you have them pre-arb or are replacing a black hole. Neither is the case here.

I have no objection to trading Lamb. Either do that or buy out his arb years now for the reasons you cite. Arizona's main problem is that their position players simply aren't that good now and Lamb's about the only guy who has demonstrated some meaningful upside. Even then, it's not like he's got some sky-high ceiling.

Big picture, their bottom-third budget, paper-thin farm system, and total unwillingness to trade their MLB assets with surplus value is not a recipe for success in the coming years. We're just talking about how to rearrange the deck chairs here.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:30 pm 
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Robert, I'm sorry but there is a lot you are missing here in your evaluation of Archer. Essentially, what it all boils down to is the last 2 seasons he was homer prone, and that impacted his results, and based on that, you are convinced this is who he is going forward.

I could argue about a dozen things here, starting with his stuff, which isn't even slightly diminished. He sits 96 and tops out 99, with virutally no change in his movement, or percentage of grooved pitches over the last 4 years. But his ISO on four seamers jumped 100 points the last two years. I think it's a release point issue. He has dropped down slightly more sidearm the last couple of years, so maybe easier to pick up. Easily correctable.

We could talk about the predictive nature of the various stats. It's very notable that Archer's Fangraphs WAR much higher than his RA-9 WAR and bb-ref war the last two years. The odds are regression will dictate his results come in line.

You definitively assert a 29 year old with zero diminished stuff is somehow incapable of reducing the amount of homers he's allowed. But thats not based on anything but a desire to support the argument.

Steamer Projections are out. Lets look at that. Note that they have a feature which neutralizes all the starters to 200 IP and the same run environments. Makes it easy to compare apples to apples.. Also note Banda not on there because they have him making more relief appearances than starts , so he's in the reliever group. If a full time starter probably he would slot in either between Godley and Corbin, or Corbin and Walker, depending on the adjustments they make for Starting vs. Relief.

The AVGW is a column I added to show the avg between RA-9 , or results based WAR and the FIP based WAR.

Code:
Name           ERA    FIP    WAR   RA9W  AvgW   H    ER   HR    SO   BB   WHIP    K/9   BB/9   HR/9
Chris Archer   3.43   3.47   4.3   4.6   4.5   170   76   24   227   62   1.16   10.2   2.81   1.08
Robbie Ray     3.66   3.62   4.3   4.5   4.4   167   81   25   248   83   1.25   11.17  3.71   1.13
Zack Greinke   3.82   3.75   4.1   4.1   4.1   193   85   26   193   51   1.22    8.7   2.28   1.17
Zack Godley    4.08   3.99   3.2   3.3   3.3   195   91   23   192   77   1.36   8.66   3.47   1.04
Patrick Corbin 4.24   4.21   2.7   3     2.9   205   94   26   174   68   1.36   7.83   3.08   1.17
Taijuan Walker 4.55   4.42   2.7   2.4   2.6   203  101   29   181   69   1.36   8.13   3.09   1.31
Shelby Miller 4.63   4.5   2.4   2.3   2.4   203   103   29   179   75   1.39   8.04   3.38   1.31


Note that Archer, pitching in the AL East, has averaged 202 IP in the last 4 years. Other than Greinke, there isn't any other starter in the D backs rotation that has shown he can give you 200 IP. So Archer's numbers rated out to 200 innings are eminently more achievable than anyone in D Backs rotation, other than 34 yr old Greinke.

Not only is Archer extremely likely to be better than Corbin, Walker, or Godley, he might even end up better than Ray and Greinke !

The hyperbole of your initial statement is so off the charts and it's very arguably the exact opposite of what you are saying.

The one area of this debate that I am willing to give quarter is the part about where are the D Backs best suited to try to improve. I agree they have a lot of holes in the field. And with the humidor, they are about to get bigger. Take 5 homers away from Jake Lamb and he might just be a 100 OPS+ guy.

So if you have any ideas of which position players you think might be obtainable and what their cost would be, I'm all ears. Would love to hear it.

As for Archer........we'll have this thread to go back to in the future and see who had the shinier crystal ball. :)

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:45 pm 
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If Archer is marketed, there are teams with much deeper farm systems than Arizona. I doubt a package led by a player who is starting to be viewed as merely part of a platoon would be enough to move the needle. Plus Lamb becomes arb eligible and Archer is signed to a very team friendly contract through 2021.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:01 pm 
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David B wrote:
If Archer is marketed, there are teams with much deeper farm systems than Arizona. I doubt a package led by a player who is starting to be viewed as merely part of a platoon would be enough to move the needle. Plus Lamb becomes arb eligible and Archer is signed to a very team friendly contract through 2021.


You are right......I said I might be having a wet dream and then later a pipe dream.

Which also kind of proves my point.

If Lamb, Banda, and another prospect are not enough to get Archer, then that tells you he has significant value. And it's not just perceived value.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:05 pm 
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I totally agree with that. Look what Quintana and Grey brought back. If Archer is made available it will be a feeding frenzy which will only drive up the cost.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:25 pm 
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I mean, I could stop this thread here and just say nothing short of a total rebuild makes sense, but that wouldn't be much fun.

And it's not what the team is going to do.

So we may as well rosterbate while waiting to see what Hazen does.

If he manages to make large positive moves, given the payroll and talent chip constraints he is faced with, as opposed to working around the edges, like he did last year, I will be very impressed.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:52 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
Robert, I'm sorry but there is a lot you are missing here in your evaluation of Archer. Essentially, what it all boils down to is the last 2 seasons he was homer prone, and that impacted his results, and based on that, you are convinced this is who he is going forward.

I could argue about a dozen things here, starting with his stuff, which isn't even slightly diminished. He sits 96 and tops out 99, with virutally no change in his movement, or percentage of grooved pitches over the last 4 years. But his ISO on four seamers jumped 100 points the last two years. I think it's a release point issue. He has dropped down slightly more sidearm the last couple of years, so maybe easier to pick up. Easily correctable.

We could talk about the predictive nature of the various stats. It's very notable that Archer's Fangraphs WAR much higher than his RA-9 WAR and bb-ref war the last two years. The odds are regression will dictate his results come in line.

You definitively assert a 29 year old with zero diminished stuff is somehow incapable of reducing the amount of homers he's allowed. But thats not based on anything but a desire to support the argument.

I don't believe he's incapable of reducing the home runs allowed. The Rays aren't run by a bunch of idiots; I'd give them the benefit of the doubt that it would've been fixed if it was easily correctable. The guy gives up a lot of line drives, a lot of hard contact, and a lot of home runs. It's not like his HR/FB rates the last couple of years have been crazy. He's simply been getting hit, and it's not an issue that plagues Tampa Bay's pitching as a matter of course. How many years does it take before it's not just bad luck? Two consecutive years in his prime is a huge red flag to me.

shoewizard wrote:
Steamer Projections are out. Lets look at that. Note that they have a feature which neutralizes all the starters to 200 IP and the same run environments. Makes it easy to compare apples to apples.. Also note Banda not on there because they have him making more relief appearances than starts , so he's in the reliever group. If a full time starter probably he would slot in either between Godley and Corbin, or Corbin and Walker, depending on the adjustments they make for Starting vs. Relief.

The AVGW is a column I added to show the avg between RA-9 , or results based WAR and the FIP based WAR.

. . .

Note that Archer, pitching in the AL East, has averaged 202 IP in the last 4 years. Other than Greinke, there isn't any other starter in the D backs rotation that has shown he can give you 200 IP. So Archer's numbers rated out to 200 innings are eminently more achievable than anyone in D Backs rotation, other than 34 yr old Greinke.

Not only is Archer extremely likely to be better than Corbin, Walker, or Godley, he might even end up better than Ray and Greinke !

The hyperbole of your initial statement is so off the charts and it's very arguably the exact opposite of what you are saying.

If I had to put money on it, I'd bet on Archer being better than Corbin, Godley, or Walker in '18. That's not saying much since that's pretty far from a reliable trio. I don't think it would be shocking if he outperformed Greinke or Ray, either. My concern is that I think there's a significant chance that his home run problem would get even worse in Arizona. If that happens, then he's damn near replacement level all of a sudden. I'd be more enthusiastic about him in a different ballpark and in front of a better defense. I think he's too unlikely to move the needle and likely too costly to make a desirable trade target for the D-backs.

shoewizard wrote:
The one area of this debate that I am willing to give quarter is the part about where are the D Backs best suited to try to improve. I agree they have a lot of holes in the field. And with the humidor, they are about to get bigger. Take 5 homers away from Jake Lamb and he might just be a 100 OPS+ guy.

So if you have any ideas of which position players you think might be obtainable and what their cost would be, I'm all ears. Would love to hear it.

As for Archer........we'll have this thread to go back to in the future and see who had the shinier crystal ball. :)

If I'm the GM of another team and Hazen calls to deal with the stipulation that Bradley, Golschmidt, Ray, and salary relief are off the table, I'm probably just asking how Hazen's family is doing and moving on with my day.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:03 pm 
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Quote:
I don't believe he's incapable of reducing the home runs allowed.


OK, maybe I misread this:

Quote:
he's demonstrated that he can't adjust to whatever changes have happened to the ball.


Quote:
It's not like his HR/FB rates the last couple of years have been crazy.


Actually pretty significant jump. Using BB-REF because it's easier to split out time frames, but keeping in mind Line Drives to outfield are considered part of "FB",

2012-2015 HR/FB rate 6.8%
2016-2017 HR/FB rate 10.9%

Thats a 60% increase in his HR/FB rate.

It's notable that Taijuan walker, after posting two very high homer years in Safeco field, moved to Arizona and dropped his HR rate a lot. (You know where to look up those numbers). I think it's overly simplistic to make the assumption that Archer moving to the NL even in Chase field, would give up more homers than he's done in the AL.

Quote:
How many years does it take before it's not just bad luck?


Who said anything about luck ? I sure as hell didn't. And I didn't even come close to implying luck.

Archer has had one season with over a .300 BABIP, 2017 and that did correlate with an increase in LD% and Hard hit rate. That was 2017. But those circumstances actually DON'T EXIST in 2016. Take a closer look. The LD rate and Hard Hit rate only jumps in 2017. 2016 is in line with previous seasons, as is his BABIP.

You are way over reacting to two seasons with high homer rates, and one season of high BABIP, which are out of character with everything that has gone on in his career prior to this. You have hand waved away, nay, you haven't even acknowledged the points I am making about his stuff, velocity, movement, grooved pitch rate, all being as good as prior seasons. etc etc, (all on Brooksbaseball.net)

I wish you were the GM of the Rays, because you undervalue Archer and his future probably more than all 30 GM's in MLB. I'd love to pick your pocket clean in an Archer trade . :)

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Thu Nov 16, 2017 1:22 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
Actually pretty significant jump. Using BB-REF because it's easier to split out time frames, but keeping in mind Line Drives to outfield are considered part of "FB",

2012-2015 HR/FB rate 6.8%
2016-2017 HR/FB rate 10.9%

Thats a 60% increase in his HR/FB rate.

It's notable that Taijuan walker, after posting two very high homer years in Safeco field, moved to Arizona and dropped his HR rate a lot. (You know where to look up those numbers). I think it's overly simplistic to make the assumption that Archer moving to the NL even in Chase field, would give up more homers than he's done in the AL.

It's a jump for Archer, but I meant it's nothing unusual relative to the rest of the starting pitchers. He's not some outlier of bad luck that would suggest a return to normal is "due". Here's where Archer ranked among SP in HR/FB:

2013: 59 out of 81 (in 128.2 IP)
2014: 13 out of 88
2015: 34 out of 78
2016: 65 out of 73
2017: 36 out of 58

That's also coinciding with a time where there's pretty widespread speculation that the balls themselves have changed and the data is clear that home runs have dramatically increased. Walker's home run rate decreased in his move to Arizona, but Ray's home run rate jumped from '15 -> '16 and he was in Chase both seasons. I don't know how instructive either example is for Archer. (For what it's worth, my guess is Walker's going to allow more home runs in '18 now that the N.L. hitters have had more experience against him.)

Home run park factors for 2017:

4. Chase - 1.22
22. Trop - 0.88

Team defense for 2017 per Fangraphs:

7. Rays +20.4
23. D-backs -12.0

I feel pretty comfortable speculating that the D-backs are not a good fit for Archer and that he'd allow more home runs as a D-back. Granted, these are dumb, blanket adjustments and it's totally possible that Archer would be fine or even thrive here, particularly if the humidor happens and is sufficiently beneficial to him. I wouldn't bank on it without some more granular park factor data and a few years of data on the humidor, though.

I think it's unlikely Tampa Bay failed to notice or failed to make any attempt to address it. If it literally is just a release point issue, isn't it a reasonable bet that they would've tried to adjust that? What about all of the other pitchers in baseball who've likewise seen their home run rates increase the last couple of years? Isn't the simple explanation that Archer's home run issue has basically tracked the league-wide change? Here's the HR/G over the last few years:

2013: 0.96
2014: 0.86
2015: 1.01
2016: 1.16
2017: 1.26

Here are the best HR/FB rates among qualified SP the last few years:

2013: 4.7%
2014: 3.9%
2015: 5.9%
2016: 8.4%
2017: 8.6%

The best rate in 2017 would've been the 31st best rate in 2014. If Archer had his career-best 6.9% HR/FB of 2014 in 2017, then he would easily be the best SP in MLB at preventing home runs by a huge margin. My guess is Archer disproportionately benefitted from the league context in the first half of his career. Plenty of pitchers better than Archer have seen their home run rate increase in the last few years. We're now talking about 40% of Archer's career innings being at the higher rate and it being the two most recent consecutive years, to boot.

shoewizard wrote:
Who said anything about luck ? I sure as hell didn't. And I didn't even come close to implying luck.

Bad wording on my part. Should've said something like: "How many years before it's safe to say that's who he is?"

shoewizard wrote:
Archer has had one season with over a .300 BABIP, 2017 and that did correlate with an increase in LD% and Hard hit rate. That was 2017. But those circumstances actually DON'T EXIST in 2016. Take a closer look. The LD rate and Hard Hit rate only jumps in 2017. 2016 is in line with previous seasons, as is his BABIP.

You are way over reacting to two seasons with high homer rates, and one season of high BABIP, which are out of character with everything that has gone on in his career prior to this. You have hand waved away, nay, you haven't even acknowledged the points I am making about his stuff, velocity, movement, grooved pitch rate, all being as good as prior seasons. etc etc, (all on Brooksbaseball.net)

I wish you were the GM of the Rays, because you undervalue Archer and his future probably more than all 30 GM's in MLB. I'd love to pick your pocket clean in an Archer trade . :)

I'm not disputing your points about stuff, velocity, movement, etc. His groundball rate has decreased the last few years, which may or may not be "fixable" or the issue. He might very well be same pitcher, but the context around him has changed whether it be the ball or the number of players who have changed their swing plane to elevate low pitches. I actually think your argument about stuff suggests that his home run rate is now reality, not an aberration.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:36 pm 
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Have you gotten in to playing with the new Graphs system they rolled out this year at FG ?

Archer FB% vs. league avg

Right at league avg every year except 1, back in 2014. (I'm disregarding 2012 rookie call up 29 IP)

Archer HR/9 vs. Lg Avg

Right around league avg in 2013, 2015, 2017, better than lg avg in 2014, worse than lg. avg in 2016.

One season only of below avg GB rate, 2017

Is that a trend or a one season outlier ?

I'll tell you what. Lets see where he lands , either staying in TB, or if traded, where he goes.

Then you and I give a detailed 3 year projection for him at that point. And then we'll always have the archive to fall back on and one of us can torment the other with it :P

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:48 pm 
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Location: Phoenix, AZ
Offseason outlook

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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:40 am 
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There are different approaches to off season. Sometime a team may wish to "shop" a player and see whats offered. Other times they have a specific need at a position, and draw up a list of trade targets with most desirable "get" at the top.

The second way is much more organized and the likely approach during off season. Trade deadline deals are more likely to be the fishing trips of shopping a player.

The D backs appear to have a hole at Catcher, and it's almost certain the D backs have to make some kind of move, either by trade or by free agency.

I am guessing they DON'T bring back Iannetta. The reasons being that despite his offensive production, I don't think they were satisfied with Chris' defense, and also Taijuan Walker does not like to throw to him, and Greinke is of course going to be caught by Mathis. So that is 2 of your 5 pitchers that can basically never be caught by Iannetta going forward. He's also likely to get a substantial raise over his 1.5M salary for 2017. The catcher market is not great for him, but with his offensive year on a contending team, he is still likely to get at least a bump to 3M, maybe a little more, and might even get a 2nd year.

So for these reasons, Iannetta will by very unlikely to return to Arizona. (Colorado needs catching by the way.......in DBacky fashion, he might end up a Rockie again, and torment us next year )

Herrmann has been listed as a non tender candidate by almost everyone, but I'm not 100% convinced thats the case. It's probable, but due to above situation, not a lock.

John Ryan Murphy got a call up last year, but it's hard to see him being penciled in as Mathis' co catcher, and we know Mathis can't catch more than half the games.

One Intriguing prospect for the D backs is Willians Astudillo, who had a very good offensive year IN RENO in 2017. Could be someone who helps during the year with inevitable attrition at Catcher. But very much a long shot to be on opening day roster

So what about trading for a catcher ?

The Red Sox have two catchers hitting arb 1 this year, and another catcher with MLB experience waiting for another chance.

Christian Vazquez 27 yrs old, arb 1 estimate 2.1M

Sandy Leon 28 yrs old, arb 1 Estimate 2.1 M

Blake Swihart 25 yrs old, pre arb, arb eligible 2019

All 3 come with their pros and cons and caveats, but Hazen will be very familiar with all 3, and it wouldn't shock me to see him target one off these catchers in a trade.

Vazquez is the best pitch framer of the bunch, and is probably the guy highest on Hazen's wish list, but I'm sure he also has the highest price tag.

(Note, must use team and year drop down files to get all the info you need at stat corner)

Leon had a positive pitch framing year in 2017, but was negative both of 2016 & 15. He had that fluke 2016 offensive season. DO NOT expect a repeat.

Swihart must have got hurt in 2016 ?? He had what looked like a promising year in 215, then little playing time in 2016, and total collapse of his offensive game in AAA in 2017.

Anyway, this is one team that has several young catchers and could be looking to deal one.

Another possibility is the Phillies

They have 3 relatively young catchers in Cameron Rupp, (arb 1, est 2.1m) Andrew Knapp, and Jorge Alfaro. They could be interested in dealing one of them.

All 3 had negative pitch framing last year, but Alfaro was the least negative , per game. Small sample sizes. Rupp was league avg in 2016 & 15.


Or....he might just go dumpster diving in the veteran scrap heap for leftovers....(we know they can't spend more than 2M if going that route. Here is the list of names.

Catchers

Alex Avila (31)
Welington Castillo (31)
A.J. Ellis (37)
Nick Hundley (34)
Chris Iannetta (35)
Jose Lobaton (33)
Raffy Lopez (30)
Jonathan Lucroy (32)
Miguel Montero (34)
Rene Rivera (34)
Carlos Ruiz (39)
Hector Sanchez (28)
Geovany Soto (35)
Chris Stewart (36)

Personally, I like the idea of trying to trade for young catching with upside. Won't be cheap in terms of talent though.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Fri Nov 17, 2017 9:13 am 
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Joined: Thu May 08, 2014 10:59 am
Posts: 423
Got a laugh out of Arizona's position on the payroll room graph here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-esti ... roll-room/


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