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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:11 am 
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dbackfanron wrote:
Can this team even make the WC next season? It seems to me that teams like the Rockies and Brewers will have money to spend, while the Dbacks are saddled with Greinke, a #2 SP at best. I can see the Dodgers winning the West next season without much difficulty, especially if they lock up Darvish and Buehler gets called up the second half.


Didn't the Rockies spend a bunch this year already? Do you think they have a lot more to spend? What's coming off their books? Keep in mind they may want to "try" to keep Arenado in a year, so they better save anything they have left because he's gonna be upward of 400M.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:17 am 
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SO DH and MH on radio just now. DH throws a bit of cold water on the notion there will be any large scale increase in payroll

Quote:
Hall was a bit more explicit about the limitations. Suggesting that the team has been a bit hasty in doubling down on prior quality seasons, he cited “the need for sustainability” in an offseason approach. Ultimately, said Hall, “we have to get creative in a few spots financially if we’re going to get aggressive in certain areas.”


MLB Trade Rumors recap

My guess at this point, and it's just a guess, is that the absolute highest they will enter the season with is 112-115 M Payroll, and that is the optimistic high side.

We shall see.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:58 am 
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Washington started the season with ~$167 million in payroll and added players before the deadline. They have the lowest payroll of the three remaining NL playoff teams to put the top teams in perspective.

It's hard to see how even $120 million puts the D-backs in a spot to be a likely 2018 contender since they only have two everyday players under contract for next year that will project to be above average at the plate, one of which won't be by a whole lot more than the skin of his teeth. Given that they have a clearly below-average defense, that's a pretty serious problem. I just don't see a lot of upside in the position players. Aside from the budget, this team is actually quite easy to upgrade because there isn't anything special at any position other than first base. Still, they now have black holes at C and LF in addition to a bunch of largely unremarkable guys everywhere else on the diamond. There's a surplus of starters, but starting pitching vanishes overnight all the time. Just ask the Mets. It's not like the non-Bradley elements of the bullpen under contract for next year are a thrilling bunch, either.

Obviously, 2017 is proof that you can have those everything-goes-right seasons. If they more or less stay the course for 2018, it seems to me that the most likely scenario is that the rotation sheds a few wins, the offense takes a smaller step back, and maybe the defense holds steady. I'd put my money on them being much closer to 83 wins than 93 as of today. The sustainability pitch from Hall is strange if they aren't going to rebuild to some extent. Their sub-30 position players aren't some great collection of talent and we've seen how volatile this collection of starting pitchers has been.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:34 am 
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From Nick Piecoro:
“I’m not anticipating a lot of challenges with being able to bring the group back as constituted if, in fact, that’s what we chose to do,” GM Mike Hazen said on Tuesday, at an end-of-season news conference at Chase Field. “I’m assuming, just organically, I would anticipate there would be some changes. We’re going to have needs in various areas. I don’t think a large majority of that will be driven by (finances) specifically.”

“We’ll see,” Diamondbacks CEO Derrick Hall said of where next year’s payroll could land. “We have to get creative in a few spots financially if we’re going to get aggressive in certain areas.”

“I think the goal hasn’t changed at all from when we hired (Hazen and his assistants) and their desire to make this thing sustainable,” Hall said. "But we have to do what makes sense now and hopefully improve but make sure it addresses the need for sustainability. Can we repeat 93 wins? I don’t know. I think in the past we’ve made the mistake of almost chasing it. After we had a successful 2007, we really went for it in 2008. Then we had a successful 2011 and went for it in 2012. We just have to be careful. These guys are fully aware of that. They’re disciplined.”

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:51 am 
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TAP wrote:
“I think the goal hasn’t changed at all from when we hired (Hazen and his assistants) and their desire to make this thing sustainable,” Hall said. "But we have to do what makes sense now and hopefully improve but make sure it addresses the need for sustainability. Can we repeat 93 wins? I don’t know. I think in the past we’ve made the mistake of almost chasing it. After we had a successful 2007, we really went for it in 2008. Then we had a successful 2011 and went for it in 2012. We just have to be careful. These guys are fully aware of that. They’re disciplined.”



Good to see Dumbass Hall admitting some mistakes.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:00 pm 
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What I'm seeing there is "Don't expect many (if at all) significant moves in free agency"

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 6:15 pm 
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JoeCB91 wrote:
What I'm seeing there is "Don't expect many (if at all) significant moves in free agency"


Agreed. It's like, "Get ready for a whole slew of Fernando Rodney-type signings all over the diamond." :?

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:08 pm 
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98dback wrote:
dbackfanron wrote:
Can this team even make the WC next season? It seems to me that teams like the Rockies and Brewers will have money to spend, while the Dbacks are saddled with Greinke, a #2 SP at best. I can see the Dodgers winning the West next season without much difficulty, especially if they lock up Darvish and Buehler gets called up the second half.


Didn't the Rockies spend a bunch this year already? Do you think they have a lot more to spend? What's coming off their books? Keep in mind they may want to "try" to keep Arenado in a year, so they better save anything they have left because he's gonna be upward of 400M.



The Rockies have at least $46,893,000 coming off the books. Arenado is not going to get $400M from the Rockies. I think they learned a lesson from the contract for Todd Helton.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:20 am 
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dbackfanron wrote:
98dback wrote:
dbackfanron wrote:
Can this team even make the WC next season? It seems to me that teams like the Rockies and Brewers will have money to spend, while the Dbacks are saddled with Greinke, a #2 SP at best. I can see the Dodgers winning the West next season without much difficulty, especially if they lock up Darvish and Buehler gets called up the second half.


Didn't the Rockies spend a bunch this year already? Do you think they have a lot more to spend? What's coming off their books? Keep in mind they may want to "try" to keep Arenado in a year, so they better save anything they have left because he's gonna be upward of 400M.



The Rockies have at least $46,893,000 coming off the books. Arenado is not going to get $400M from the Rockies. I think they learned a lesson from the contract for Todd Helton.


Losing Cargo won't hurt too bad, but he was a weapon down the stretch. The guys heading toward FA in a year like Lemehieu, Arenado and Blackmon will be big losses...

One thing is sure, without Arenado, they're going to be a much lesser team. Arenado is a beast.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Sat Oct 21, 2017 4:22 pm 
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According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Cubs may be willing to give up players from their 25-man roster. They have two SP they need to replace. First I would inquire about their interest in acquiring Greinke. Failing any interest there, I would look at Corbin and a prospect(s) (except: Smith, Duplantier, Bandaa, Sherfy)) for Happ or Baez


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:00 am 
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Nick breaks down the roster/dollars

Interesting lead in
Quote:
The Diamondbacks' surprising success in 2017 undoubtedly caused the leadership group to adjust the long-term plan regarding the team's roster makeup and salary structure.


We'll see how that translates to an actual meaningful increase in payroll budget.

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It's time for ownership to stop pretending they can't afford substantial payroll increases from recent levels. They absolutely can
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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:18 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
Nick breaks down the roster/dollars

Interesting lead in
Quote:
The Diamondbacks' surprising success in 2017 undoubtedly caused the leadership group to adjust the long-term plan regarding the team's roster makeup and salary structure.


We'll see how that translates to an actual meaningful increase in payroll budget.


I'm not saying they'll succeed in keeping JD, but I think they're going to make a stronger run than most expect at keeping him. And I'm not sure they're as invested in some in trading Greinke. I think the feeling is that while he makes a lot of money, and he did not translate as well as you'd like in the postseason, he's the type of pitcher that will succeed at a high level over a long season, and actually making it TO the playoffs without him will be much more difficult.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 10:10 am 
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Second year in a row that a down-to-the-studs rebuild team won the World Series.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 4:45 pm 
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Strebor wrote:
Second year in a row that a down-to-the-studs rebuild team won the World Series.


Yup, if they had started this process after 2010 think of where we would be today ?

Well at least we had that 2011 division title and the loss to the brewers in NLDS and the 2017 WC thrills before getting crushed by LA 3 straight.

One point though: As long as KK is the owner, I don't think any GM would last long enough to do that kind of rebuild. So it's a moot point. It can never be executed with the mind set of the ownership we have.

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It's time for ownership to stop pretending they can't afford substantial payroll increases from recent levels. They absolutely can
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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 4:51 pm 
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We have to hope as a smart businessman (?) KK has learned a lesson.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 8:22 pm 
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dbackfanron wrote:
We have to hope as a smart businessman (?) KK has learned a lesson.

He's 74-years-old, has been part of the ownership group since ‘95, and has been in charge since '04. I think the time for optimism has long since passed.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Sat Nov 04, 2017 4:49 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
Strebor wrote:
Second year in a row that a down-to-the-studs rebuild team won the World Series.


Yup, if they had started this process after 2010 think of where we would be today ?

The Club started a rebuild in 2004 and reached the NLCS by 2007 with a core group of young players, very similar to these Cubs/Astros. But the Cubs/Astros ownership didn't abandon their long-term plan halfway into it.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Sat Nov 11, 2017 8:38 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
SO DH and MH on radio just now. DH throws a bit of cold water on the notion there will be any large scale increase in payroll

Quote:
Hall was a bit more explicit about the limitations. Suggesting that the team has been a bit hasty in doubling down on prior quality seasons, he cited “the need for sustainability” in an offseason approach. Ultimately, said Hall, “we have to get creative in a few spots financially if we’re going to get aggressive in certain areas.”


MLB Trade Rumors recap

My guess at this point, and it's just a guess, is that the absolute highest they will enter the season with is 112-115 M Payroll, and that is the optimistic high side.

We shall see.


So we have the clearest indication yet that payroll will not go above 115 M, and it's likely to be less. Derek Hall confirmed that on Friday to Nick Piecoro

Derrick Hall says Diamondbacks’ payroll won’t see steep increase

Quote:
Hall said the Diamondbacks’ payroll will be “close to where we’ve been the last couple of years.” The club ended last season somewhere above $105 million and next year’s roster projects north of $115 million. That would appear to leave little room for another big-ticket item like Martinez, whose agent, Scott Boras, seems to be positioning his client for a major payday..............

Hall said the club’s target 2018 payroll could rise as the offseason progresses depending on whether the club’s anticipated revenues increase, but he said that wouldn’t be a significant jump.

“You’re not talking about $10 million,” he said.


So there you have it. Starting point will be 100 to 105 MAX, and they may take it up a bit mid season, but not by 10 M. His own words.

Now go back to first comment in this thread. Remember in that comment I was actually using ARB numbers that were too low for a few players and in total may have been low as much as 10M in my arb estimates. (Correct that later in the thread) It is abundantly clear to me that the team is going to try to clear some payroll. They have no choice if they are going to work within these limitations.

As for JD Martinez, fugheddabout it. Hall all but confirms that, and the team has their out now that JD hired Boras.

Quote:
“(We had) some good conversations (before free agency began) and since then he’s sought new representation, so things have changed from those initial conversations,” Hall said. “But J.D. is such a great guy and we’re just glad to know that he enjoyed his time here because we enjoyed him being here, too.”

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It's time for ownership to stop pretending they can't afford substantial payroll increases from recent levels. They absolutely can
viewtopic.php?p=244425#p244425


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Sat Nov 11, 2017 1:19 pm 
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They've positioned themselves to repeat their favorite cycle: Single fluke playoff appearance -> .500ish team -> total collapse

It took an incredible run from Martinez and a best-case scenario with the rotation last year just to sneak into the playoffs by one game. I don't expect that they'll be able to go 12-7 against the Giants again next year, much less have a winning record against every team in the division.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Sat Nov 11, 2017 2:17 pm 
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Strebor wrote:
They've positioned themselves to repeat their favorite cycle: Single fluke playoff appearance -> .500ish team -> total collapse

It took an incredible run from Martinez and a best-case scenario with the rotation last year just to sneak into the playoffs by one game. I don't expect that they'll be able to go 12-7 against the Giants again next year, much less have a winning record against every team in the division.

Ken became Managing General Partner of the Diamondbacks in 2004.

The Diamondbacks made the playoffs 3 of the 6 total years (50%) prior to that, winning it all one of those years.

In the 13 years since Ken took the helm, the Diamondbacks have made the playoffs 3 times (23%) and have never been back to the World Series.

#CommitmentToWinning

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"It's about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. How much you can take and keep moving forward. That's how winning is done!"
- Rocky Balboa on the 2017 Arizona Diamondbacks, those comeback kids


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