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 Post subject: Re: Jake Lamb called up
 Post Posted: Sat Sep 24, 2016 6:16 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
JoeCB91 wrote:
shoewizard wrote:
It never fails. Ever.

The day after I post above about lambs defense his 29 game errorless streak comes to an end


Repeat after me

"DS/TLR won't get fired, and Kendrick will never make competent moves."


Unfortunately it doesn work that way. I have to believe that what I am saying is true or correct when. i write it. If I wrote that trying for the opposite effect they both wouldmget 3 year extensions.

Or 8 if DH has a strong enough stomach.

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 Post subject: Re: Jake Lamb called up
 Post Posted: Sat Sep 24, 2016 6:28 pm 
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Not helping....

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 Post subject: Re: Jake Lamb called up
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 06, 2017 11:34 am 
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Nice Article about Lamb at AZ Sports

I was in Seattle in 2015 when D Backs visited and had seats close to visitor dugout. It was pretty cool seeing his family all cluster around him at the end of the game. He was so happy.

He's a humble guy. Works hard. Stays in Shape. Hustles all the time. Easy guy to root for.

He's having fielding issues, but the bat is more than making up for it. Still might need to move off 3rd base in the not too distant future. But until that happens, you take the good with the not so good, knowing you are getting more of the former than the latter.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Jake Lamb called up
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 06, 2017 1:07 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
Nice Article about Lamb at AZ Sports

I was in Seattle in 2015 when D Backs visited and had seats close to visitor dugout. It was pretty cool seeing his family all cluster around him at the end of the game. He was so happy.

He's a humble guy. Works hard. Stays in Shape. Hustles all the time. Easy guy to root for.

He's having fielding issues, but the bat is more than making up for it. Still might need to move off 3rd base in the not too distant future. But until that happens, you take the good with the not so good, knowing you are getting more of the former than the latter.


Where would he play if not 3rd?


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 Post subject: Re: Jake Lamb called up
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 06, 2017 2:40 pm 
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98dback wrote:
Where would he play if not 3rd?

He could fill in for Goldy at 1B on PG's RARE days off
or he could play in left field
I mean, if the HERMINATOR can play left field, I would think Lamb could handle it.
BTW, I don't think we're really clear on how many days off that the regulars actually need.


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 Post subject: Re: Jake Lamb called up
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 06, 2017 3:13 pm 
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TheDesertSurfer wrote:
98dback wrote:
Where would he play if not 3rd?

He could fill in for Goldy at 1B on PG's RARE days off
or he could play in left field
I mean, if the HERMINATOR can play left field, I would think Lamb could handle it.
BTW, I don't think we're really clear on how many days off that the regulars actually need.


yeah, pretty much this. On THIS team, as long as Goldy is on first, then only other option for Lamb is LF

If Goldy is ever moved, then Lamb could go over to 1b, or if Lamb is ever traded, his new team could put him at 1b

EDIT: When I said not too distant future, I didn't mean this year.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Jake Lamb called up
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 06, 2017 3:43 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
TheDesertSurfer wrote:
98dback wrote:
Where would he play if not 3rd?

He could fill in for Goldy at 1B on PG's RARE days off
or he could play in left field
I mean, if the HERMINATOR can play left field, I would think Lamb could handle it.
BTW, I don't think we're really clear on how many days off that the regulars actually need.


yeah, pretty much this. On THIS team, as long as Goldy is on first, then only other option for Lamb is LF

If Goldy is ever moved, then Lamb could go over to 1b, or if Lamb is ever traded, his new team could put him at 1b

EDIT: When I said not too distant future, I didn't mean this year.


I figured 1B, but Goldy plays every day, so that wouldn't happen often. I guess LF, but he'd have to be the every day guy. Lamb needs to be in the lineup every day. I haven't looked it up, but it feels like he's getting closer to respectable against lefties, which was his last step in becoming a big-time, middle-of-the-order guy.


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 Post subject: Re: Jake Lamb called up
 Post Posted: Wed Jun 07, 2017 2:09 am 
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Still having problems vs LHP, but that could change quickly now that he's playing against them regularly.

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 Post subject: Re: Jake Lamb called up
 Post Posted: Wed Jun 07, 2017 7:13 am 
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He's actually getting worse.

The Strikeout rate is worse, the OPS is the lowest since rookie year. Even relative to other left handed batters, his sOPS+ in this split is just terrible. Don't believe the hype. He's not getting better vs. lefties.
It's the truth, unfortunately. He needs to show a massive turnaround over the next two months or we are pretty much at the point where we have to say he probably won't ever hit lefties.

Code:
                                                                             
Year       G  PA  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS BAbip sOPS+
2014      11  22  22  2  3  0  1  0   1  0  7 .136 .136 .227 .364  .200     1
2015      41  51  45  4  9  0  0  1   3  5 19 .200 .275 .267 .541  .308    53
2016      74 129 110 13 18  4  2  4  16 17 36 .164 .279 .345 .625  .197    70
2017      28  61  55  5  8  2  0  2   7  5 26 .145 .230 .291 .520  .222    45
Career   154 263 232 24 38  6  3  7  27 27 88 .164 .255 .306 .561        .223


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/7/2017.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Jake Lamb called up
 Post Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:42 am 
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Interesting Jake Lamb Comp list

Below is the comp criteria. Note the emphasis is on him as an offensive player. His defense at third base is taken out of these comps, as I'm not only comparing him to thirdbasemen. I'm just looking at him as a hitter and baserunner, primarily

1.) Left handed Batters

2.) Through Age 26

3.) Minimum 1200 PA, Maximum 2500 PA. Jake has 1367 Career PA. So setting minimum at 1200 is to make sure you are comparing guys with at least a reasonably close amount of playing time. Originally I had the PA Top end set to 1800 but when I increased to 2500 it only added 3 players, (Alvarez, Lind and Fulmer). So edited here and revised table below

4.) OPS+ between 106-112 as Jake has OPS+ of 109. It's just to set a range.

5.) ISO: Set to .190 or higher. Jake has a .214 ISO. Setting it to .190 insures you get guys with Power, and secondarily if you do that with those OPS+ ranges, you will effectively eliminate guys that derived too much of their value through batting average. Jake has a .257 Batting avg, and the range of the players this comp kicks out is between .239-.266

These are just a few "tricks" I've learned using the Play Index to help narrow down the comp list while dealing with limited drop down file options

6.) I sorted by oWAR to take defense out of the equation, but oWAR does take baserunning and positional adjustments into account, as well as batting runs, and of course league/park adjustments.


Original Table Link

You can go to the original table, and click on the players in the comp links and take a look at their careers from age 27 onwards.

Wide variance of results there....some great, some not so great. If studying those players, I suggest you also go to their splits pages and look at their career and year by year platoon splits, (Left-Right)

I think how Jake progresses , or doesn't progress vs. lefties , will determine where he ends up on the spectrum of this comp list.














RkPlayeroWARPAOPS+ISOSOBBABRH2B3BHRRBIHBPSBCSBAOBPSLGOPSPos
1Nate McLouth7.21484108.20024912513052453418995116031575.261.338.461.798*8H/97
2Willie Kirkland6.81548112.1982391291396171364681957189122012.261.327.459.786*9/H7
3Pedro Alvarez6.71848106.208565166166519439277586268740.235.306.443.749*5/HD
4Jake Lamb6.61367110.21435413712161723136218541895136.257.333.471.804*5/H3
5Carlos Pena5.51593110.212397174139218934064156719612138.244.331.456.787*3/HD
6Mike Pagliarulo5.41219109.214252114108515025955854167841.239.314.453.767*5/H6
7Adam Lind5.31992109.20239013318322404971167802801143.271.322.473.796*D7/H3
8Phil Plantier4.71764110.206390196153121837874279243171110.247.336.453.789*79/HD
9Ike Davis4.41711112.192411207148819636081267219474.242.334.434.768*3/H
10Brad Wilkerson4.11341111.191357187112818129468144014192219.261.368.452.820*78/3H9
11Dan Pasqua3.61335111.203315149116815128343462162832.242.331.445.776*7/H9D3
12Brad Fullmer3.42061106.2002681311896247531140775315171612.280.329.480.809D3/H7
13David Ortiz3.31693108.1953391861477215393108358238942.266.348.461.809*D3/H



Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/8/2017.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Jake Lamb called up
 Post Posted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 11:31 am 
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Following up the above table, I decided to go ahead ahead and look at what each of the players on the comp list did from ages 27-29

Why 27-29 ?

Simply Jake is arb eligible thee next 3 seasons, (2018,19,20) and then a FA in 2021 entering his age 30 season. So the next 3 years are the most relevant to the team and the decisions they will ultimately need to make. Also, using the comps to project out further than that is even more specious than this original exercise. ;)

So.....what turned up.

Here are the averages first.

Code:
Player       PA     BA    OBP   SLG   OPS+  oWAR HR   RBI
Avg of 12  1230   .252   .336   .461   112   4   52   169
3 yr avg    410   .252   .336   .461   112   1   17    56


And the FIRST thing that should jump out at you is the playing time. ALOT of those 12 guys missed serious time in ages 27-29. In fact only 3 of the 12 comps managed over 1506 PA from ages 27-29 (502 PA qualifies for batting title). And 502 PA is the MINIMUM number of PA's to be considered an "everyday player". The average of 410 PA is definitely NOT an every day player average.

There are two reasons for this: performance and injury, which usually go hand in hand, although SOME of those players also lost playing time because of their platoon splits and were essentially reduced to platoon play. BUT for the MOST PART, the health is generally not good.

The second thing you see is that the average performance is just so so. Probably ok for an ARB 1, and maybe even ARB 2 player, but not really for an ARB 3 player, or marginally. So that DOES bring in the Sell High aspect when considering Jake Lamb's future. (Hat Tip to since98, this information makes a sell high seem more plausible, although still not where I would go with it at this point)

Here below is the full table of all 12 Comps.

Extreme upside is David Ortiz, not likely, and also Carlos Pena. If I remember right, Pena had a broken arm or leg or something, and missed extensive time, then came back and had a MONSTER season in his age 29 season.

Dan Pasqua is surprisingly high on this list, as is Brad Fulmer and either wouldn't be a bad result for Jake for the next 3 years, although I am sure most D Backs fans hoping for more than that.

After that the dropoff is significant in terms of upside

Code:
Player           PA     BA     OBP    SLG   OPS+ oWAR   HR   RBI
Ortiz           1891   .297   .383   .600   149   13   119   388
Pena             994   .266   .382   .568   150   7.4   65   168
Pasqua          1130   .261   .344   .466   127   5.2   42   171
Wilkerson       1714   .245   .351   .445   106   4.7   58   168
Alvarez         1312   .241   .317   .457   110   4.1   67   182
Fulmer          1004   .277   .351   .498   120   3.9   39   127
Lind            1416   .265   .323   .454   109   3.4   60   199
McLouth         1200   .233   .337   .382   94    3.3   30   110
Kirkland        1533   .232   .299   .414   94    2.1   63   214
Pagliarulo      1484   .218   .287   .392   86    1.6   54   184
Davis            681   .231   .327   .364   94      0   14    72
Plantier         402   .224   .313   .378   76   -0.5   12    49

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Jake Lamb called up
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 9:06 pm 
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Jake Lamb among Left Hand Batters vs. Left Hand Pitchers since 2015, min 200 PA in the split, ranks 65th of 68th

Link

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Jake Lamb called up
 Post Posted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 9:32 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
Jake Lamb among Left Hand Batters vs. Left Hand Pitchers since 2015, min 200 PA in the split, ranks 65th of 68th

Link

;)


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 Post subject: Re: Jake Lamb called up
 Post Posted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 9:35 pm 
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Haha

Cant make this shit up

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Jake Lamb called up
 Post Posted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 10:09 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
Haha

Cant make this shit up


Well done!


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 Post subject: Re: Jake Lamb called up
 Post Posted: Sun Jul 16, 2017 9:32 pm 
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Is Lamb basically a platoon player?


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 Post subject: Re: Jake Lamb called up
 Post Posted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 4:37 am 
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bobster wrote:
Is Lamb basically a platoon player?


Could be, but lack of consistent exposure to them could be the problem. Over his MLB career there are only 2 months where he had 25 or more PAs vs LHP, with wRC+ of 73 & 76. Considering he only has 290 career PAs vs LHP I'd say it is way too soon to apply that label.

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 Post subject: Re: Jake Lamb called up
 Post Posted: Sun Aug 13, 2017 7:28 am 
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Jake since July 1

32 Games, 133 PA, .189/.346/.453 7 HR, 22 walks, 29 K's, BABIP .183

Thats dropped his season line t .259/.369/.524, 122 OPS+

The good news here is that while his quality of contact sank in July, resulting in a .178 BABIP that month, it's actually been pretty good in August, but the BABIP has stayed down at .192 . (see Hard Hit % by month, and also Line Drive Percentage by month in that link)

So if he keeps doing what he's been doing in August, he should start seeing some better results.


Thats the theory anyway. :)

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


Last edited by shoewizard on Thu Aug 17, 2017 3:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Jake Lamb called up
 Post Posted: Thu Aug 17, 2017 3:14 pm 
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Since I posted above comment Jake is 8 for 20, including 4 doubles and a homer, and 3 RBI, (and 6 k's)

400/400/750 triple slash last 5 games.

That'll work. 8-)

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Jake Lamb called up
 Post Posted: Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:17 am 
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Unfortunately Jake's revival was short lived, and his season OPS+ is down to 112

Here is a mini updated comp list. Left Handed corner infielders First 4 seasons, age 26 or younger. (Blalock was 24 when he finished his 4th season) Will he go the way of Pena, or of Alvarez and Blalock ?





PlayerOPS+WAR/posRfieldISOSOBBPAGABRH2B3BHRRBIGDPBAOBPSLGOPS
Carlos Pena1105.4-5.0.2123971741593410139218934064156719625.244.331.456.787
Jake Lamb1065.6-14.0.2114281841690428148521437478196623435.252.336.463.799
Pedro Alvarez1064.3-23.0.208565166184847016651943927758626845.235.306.443.749
Hank Blalock10411.012.0.1974211902205512198529254311368930947.274.338.471.809



Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/11/2017.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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