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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:49 pm 
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TAP wrote:
Courtesy of shoewizard

Image


Interesting how WC odds actually 5% higher than they were two weeks ago.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 7:46 am 
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Getting swept in Atlanta causes big 10% point drop in wild card odds from July 10th. (from 87 to 77)

And for all practical purposes, I can delete the division odds from the table altogether. While it will be a while before Dodgers actually officially clinch division, the division race is over.


Code:
Site    FG       BP     538    Avg
POFF   78.3%   83.6%   69.0%   77.0%
DIV     0.1%    0.4%    0.0%    0.2%
WC     78.2%   83.2%   69.0%   76.8%
WS      1.8%    3.1%    1.0%    2.0%

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 4:15 pm 
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TAP wrote:
Courtesy of shoewizard

Image



I just see a speedomoter type thing that says, please update your account to enable 3rd part hosting and at the bottom of the "speedometer" it says 3rd party hosting usage 100%.

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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:30 pm 
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Its a new thing Photobucket does, they want people to pay 400 dollars to upgrade their accounts so they can share images

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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:31 pm 
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:lol: wow

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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 7:58 am 
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Hard luck Diamondbacks ?

Well, in some ways yes.

Looking at Baseball Propectus Adjusted standings, the D Backs have the 2nd largest gap between Actual wins and Pythagorean Wins

(54 wins vs. 57.4 Pythag wins) This is based on runs scored vs. runs allowed.

report link

The gap is not so big when looking at second order, (D2) in the report. 2 wins is still significant though. If you scroll your mouse over the column heading you can see the description of what D2 and D3 mean.

Their record in one run games has regressed to 18-14.

The offense was living off of timely hitting for much of the season. But their rankings in BA W/RISP, 2 out RISP, High Leverage, Late and Close, have all been slipping lately.

But it's not only about that. Since June 25th, Even with bases empty, the team wRC+ is only 84, and ranks 23rd in MLB

Team offensive performance has been down in ALL situation, both clutch and non clutch, with and without baserunners on base.

Overall, last 30 days, D backs offense ranks 26th in MLB. LINK

Already closer to league average than people realized before the slump, the slump has knocked them to a well below average offense for the season.

Hopefully JD Martinez can recover quickly and provide a boost, but thats something we can't really count on till it happens.

Lead over Cubs down to 5 games. They are hot. We are not.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 8:25 am 
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Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2016 1:54 pm
Posts: 145
shoewizard wrote:
Hard luck Diamondbacks ?

Well, in some ways yes.

Looking at Baseball Propectus Adjusted standings, the D Backs have the 2nd largest gap between Actual wins and Pythagorean Wins

(54 wins vs. 57.4 Pythag wins) This is based on runs scored vs. runs allowed.

report link

The gap is not so big when looking at second order, (D2) in the report. 2 wins is still significant though. If you scroll your mouse over the column heading you can see the description of what D2 and D3 mean.

Their record in one run games has regressed to 18-14.

The offense was living off of timely hitting for much of the season. But their rankings in BA W/RISP, 2 out RISP, High Leverage, Late and Close, have all been slipping lately.

But it's not only about that. Since June 25th, Even with bases empty, the team wRC+ is only 84, and ranks 23rd in MLB

Team offensive performance has been down in ALL situation, both clutch and non clutch, with and without baserunners on base.

Overall, last 30 days, D backs offense ranks 26th in MLB. LINK

Already closer to league average than people realized before the slump, the slump has knocked them to a well below average offense for the season.

Hopefully JD Martinez can recover quickly and provide a boost, but thats something we can't really count on till it happens.

Lead over Cubs down to 5 games. They are hot. We are not.


I'm actually expecting the Cubs to pass us at some point just given our future schedule and its brutality. I'm focused on Milwaukee. I think the Cubs pass them also and they have as good a chance as us, if not better, of slippage.


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 8:51 am 
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Honestly I have been wondering if we will still have a lead over the Cubs when we face them for 3 in Chicago early next month.

And I agree there is a good chance they pass Milwaukee, and the teams we are then fending off for second WC spot become Milwaukee, St. Louis and Atlanta.

If they don't start hitting again, and don't start winning more than they lose from here on out, they won't be in that game. SOME other team is likely to get hot enough to pas them. You can't keep playing losing baseball and expect everyone else to keep losing too.

Especially when you have games coming up head to head against the very teams you need to fend off.

They are in deep trouble, 5 game lead or not.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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