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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:49 pm 
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TAP wrote:
Courtesy of shoewizard

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Interesting how WC odds actually 5% higher than they were two weeks ago.

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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 7:46 am 
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Getting swept in Atlanta causes big 10% point drop in wild card odds from July 10th. (from 87 to 77)

And for all practical purposes, I can delete the division odds from the table altogether. While it will be a while before Dodgers actually officially clinch division, the division race is over.


Code:
Site    FG       BP     538    Avg
POFF   78.3%   83.6%   69.0%   77.0%
DIV     0.1%    0.4%    0.0%    0.2%
WC     78.2%   83.2%   69.0%   76.8%
WS      1.8%    3.1%    1.0%    2.0%

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 4:15 pm 
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TAP wrote:
Courtesy of shoewizard

Image



I just see a speedomoter type thing that says, please update your account to enable 3rd part hosting and at the bottom of the "speedometer" it says 3rd party hosting usage 100%.

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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:30 pm 
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Its a new thing Photobucket does, they want people to pay 400 dollars to upgrade their accounts so they can share images

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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:31 pm 
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:lol: wow

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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 7:58 am 
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Hard luck Diamondbacks ?

Well, in some ways yes.

Looking at Baseball Propectus Adjusted standings, the D Backs have the 2nd largest gap between Actual wins and Pythagorean Wins

(54 wins vs. 57.4 Pythag wins) This is based on runs scored vs. runs allowed.

report link

The gap is not so big when looking at second order, (D2) in the report. 2 wins is still significant though. If you scroll your mouse over the column heading you can see the description of what D2 and D3 mean.

Their record in one run games has regressed to 18-14.

The offense was living off of timely hitting for much of the season. But their rankings in BA W/RISP, 2 out RISP, High Leverage, Late and Close, have all been slipping lately.

But it's not only about that. Since June 25th, Even with bases empty, the team wRC+ is only 84, and ranks 23rd in MLB

Team offensive performance has been down in ALL situation, both clutch and non clutch, with and without baserunners on base.

Overall, last 30 days, D backs offense ranks 26th in MLB. LINK

Already closer to league average than people realized before the slump, the slump has knocked them to a well below average offense for the season.

Hopefully JD Martinez can recover quickly and provide a boost, but thats something we can't really count on till it happens.

Lead over Cubs down to 5 games. They are hot. We are not.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 8:25 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
Hard luck Diamondbacks ?

Well, in some ways yes.

Looking at Baseball Propectus Adjusted standings, the D Backs have the 2nd largest gap between Actual wins and Pythagorean Wins

(54 wins vs. 57.4 Pythag wins) This is based on runs scored vs. runs allowed.

report link

The gap is not so big when looking at second order, (D2) in the report. 2 wins is still significant though. If you scroll your mouse over the column heading you can see the description of what D2 and D3 mean.

Their record in one run games has regressed to 18-14.

The offense was living off of timely hitting for much of the season. But their rankings in BA W/RISP, 2 out RISP, High Leverage, Late and Close, have all been slipping lately.

But it's not only about that. Since June 25th, Even with bases empty, the team wRC+ is only 84, and ranks 23rd in MLB

Team offensive performance has been down in ALL situation, both clutch and non clutch, with and without baserunners on base.

Overall, last 30 days, D backs offense ranks 26th in MLB. LINK

Already closer to league average than people realized before the slump, the slump has knocked them to a well below average offense for the season.

Hopefully JD Martinez can recover quickly and provide a boost, but thats something we can't really count on till it happens.

Lead over Cubs down to 5 games. They are hot. We are not.


I'm actually expecting the Cubs to pass us at some point just given our future schedule and its brutality. I'm focused on Milwaukee. I think the Cubs pass them also and they have as good a chance as us, if not better, of slippage.


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 8:51 am 
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Honestly I have been wondering if we will still have a lead over the Cubs when we face them for 3 in Chicago early next month.

And I agree there is a good chance they pass Milwaukee, and the teams we are then fending off for second WC spot become Milwaukee, St. Louis and Atlanta.

If they don't start hitting again, and don't start winning more than they lose from here on out, they won't be in that game. SOME other team is likely to get hot enough to pas them. You can't keep playing losing baseball and expect everyone else to keep losing too.

Especially when you have games coming up head to head against the very teams you need to fend off.

They are in deep trouble, 5 game lead or not.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Sat Jul 22, 2017 8:49 am 
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Well, winning 3 of 4 and beating Scherzer has changed the mood, AND the odds quite a bit. It's a roller coaster of emotions, but it's fun

If the D Backs do ultimately clinch a WC game, it probably won't come until there are just 8-10 games left in the season at least and maybe less. Unless they open up a double digit lead or something

Code:
Site   FG        BP      538    Avg
POFF   86.3%    90.9%   78.0%   85.1%
DIV     0.3%     0.7%    1.0%    0.7%
WC     86.0%    90.2%   77.0%   84.4%
WS      2.8%     3.7%    3.0%    3.2%

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:19 am 
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Updated Odds as of this morning. Down slightly from last update despite series win vs. Atlanta.

Need at least a split in St. Louis.

Code:
Site   FG       BP      538     Avg
POFF   84.7%   90.2%   73.0%   82.6%
DIV     0.1%    0.2%    0.0%    0.1%
WC     84.6%   90.0%   73.0%   82.5%
WS      2.7%    3.9%    2.0%    2.9%


FYI, Jim at Snakepit does a more comprehensive version of this, but he publishes after every 10 games, so a little less frequently.

Here was his update from last night, before the overnight changes

Linky

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 7:52 am 
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So, how does 4 game split with St. Louis affect the odds ? It makes them go UP a couple of points !

The Cardinals needed to win the series to improve THEIR odds, and Milwaukee lost 2 of 3 to Chicago. Pittsburgh also lost 2 of 3 to San Diego.

Unfortunately our lead over the Rockies is now only a 1/2 game in the loss column . They are home against the Mets and Philly this week and D Backs are the road in Chicago and San Francisco. So I rather expect to the Rockies to take over the top spot in the WC , at least for this week.

Code:
Site   FG       BP      538     Avg
POFF   87.4%   92.2%   79.0%   86.2%
DIV     0.0%    0.1%    0.0%    0.0%
WC     87.4%   92.1%   79.0%   86.2%
WS      2.7%    4.2%    3.0%    3.3%

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 9:46 am 
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I'd just like to point out that the playoff percentages are just 4.7% lower than they were on June 25th when the offense malaise began.

They put A LOT of wins in the bank, and the effect of that is stronger than most people realized at the time.

The fact that they had a very strong positive run differential in July makes it both frustrating they didn't have a better month and encouraging for the long term prospects of the team for rest of this season.

August is tough. Really hope to a see a .500 month in August.

Code:
Month by Month
Split   W    L    RS    RA   W-L%
April   16   11   141   112   .593
May     17   11   129   104   .607
June    17    9   152   101   .654
July    10   14   106   87    .417

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 9:32 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
Unfortunately our lead over the Rockies is now only a 1/2 game in the loss column . They are home against the Mets and Philly this week and D Backs are the road in Chicago and San Francisco. So I rather expect to the Rockies to take over the top spot in the WC , at least for this week.

AZ's next 11 days after the CHC/SFG road trip get no easier: LAD(3), CHC(3) and HOU(4) with one day off while COL's next 11 days are against CLE(2), MIA(3) and ATL(4) with TWO days off.

Doesn't appear it will be easy to hold off the Rockies the next couple of weeks. . .


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Fri Aug 04, 2017 7:47 am 
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Update after the Cubs series

9-7 in their last 16, Back up to 90%, clearly have "righted the ship" after the 3-11 stretch.

Schedule ahead gets even tougher after the SFO series though.

Also Div odds all at zero now and the world series odds have dropped fractionally, due to coin flip nature of the WC game.

Code:
Site   FG       BP     538      Avg
POFF   90.9%   94.5%   84.0%   89.8%
DIV     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
WC     90.9%   94.5%   84.0%   89.8%
WS      2.4%    3.9%    3.0%    3.1%

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Fri Aug 04, 2017 2:04 pm 
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Right, we're coming up on that nonsense series where we do two at home immediately followed by two away against Houston. At least throw an off-day in there to save some face, MLB.

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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Mon Aug 07, 2017 9:28 am 
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Updated.

WC Odds still very strong, although obviously down slightly. World Series odds waning.

Basically no team with under 5% chance of winning their division is showing more than 2-3% chance of winning the world series. If you are Wild Card only, then WS odds are going to be low. Of course we have seen WC teams win the World Series, so anything can happen

See also This comment



Code:
Site   FG       BP      538     Avg
POFF   88.1%   92.0%   82.0%   87.4%
DIV     0.0%    0.1%    0.0%    0.0%
WC     88.1%   92.0%   82.0%   87.4%
WS      2.6%    3.7%    2.0%    2.8%

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Fri Aug 11, 2017 9:00 am 
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OMG !. After losing 2 of 3 to the Dodgers, the D Backs playoff odds have "plummeted" from 87.4% to 85.8%. :twisted:



Code:
Site   FG       BP      538     Avg
POFF   85.6%   91.9%   80.0%   85.8%
DIV     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
WC     85.6%   91.9%   80.0%   85.8%
WS      2.6%    4.1%    2.0%    2.9%

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Fri Aug 11, 2017 9:07 am 
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:lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Fri Aug 11, 2017 9:47 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
OMG !. After losing 2 of 3 to the Dodgers, the D Backs playoff odds have "plummeted" from 87.4% to 85.8%. :twisted:



Code:
Site   FG       BP      538     Avg
POFF   85.6%   91.9%   80.0%   85.8%
DIV     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
WC     85.6%   91.9%   80.0%   85.8%
WS      2.6%    4.1%    2.0%    2.9%


I am starting to raise my concern level for St Louis. They're really starting to play well and only 5.5 back. Looking at their schedule, it's not that tough going forward. They even have 6 vs the Padres remaining. If the Cubs get us this weekend, and STL keeps winning, both of those teams could easily pass us.


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:34 am 
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Yeah, I agree. St. Louis is playing well, 6-4 last 10, 13-7 last 20, 18-12 last 30.

They passed Milwaukee, and probably won't look back, so thats the team we watch now.

Actually a month ago I was kinda saying that about St. Louis, then we split with them and they couldn't gain ground, and it seemed like they stalled out, but now their engines are running again.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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