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 Post subject: Angels sign Ohtani
 Post Posted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 5:27 pm 
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Kind of surprised misterx (...or anyone) wasn't on top of this.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/12/08/shohe ... ign-angels

https://www.mlb.com/news/angels-officia ... -263185848

Minor league deal, 2.3 million signing bonus.

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 Post subject: Re: Angels sign Ohtani
 Post Posted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:33 am 
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oops !

A friend asked me what I thought on e mail. This was my response:

So thinking about this, I think he made a mistake signing with an AL team, (And I think it's a mistake for an AL team to sign him. )

1.) Even Babe Ruth gave up trying to be a two way player after 2 seasons. And when he was truly trying to be a two way player, he curtailed his pitching starts to 15-20 a season and innings only 120-130.

I don't think there is any way that Ohtani can start 25 games at pitcher and remain effective and also play a position 2 days a week when not starting. Remember in japan season is shorter and most starters only have to go once a week .


2.) Playing for an AL team, Ohtani is not going to be able to help himself when pitching, except in inter league games in the NL. In other words just once or twice a year.

3.) The odds are actually better that he provides value as pitcher over being a hitter. reasons:

A.) He's never faced MLB pitching, and his Walk/Strikeout rates are below average for Japan. He is likely to be a low average, low OBP guy with some HR power for at least the first couple of years.

B.) He won't get enough reps at the plate. As mentioned, he won't be able to hit in games he pitches, and he'll probably only start 1 game a week at a position, 2 at the most, just once in a while. In other words, not enough reps. The combination of not enough reps, no minor league experience, and tougher MLB pitching will greatly suppress his hitting value in MLB

Summary:

If he were on an NL team, as a pitcher that can hit much better than the opposing team's pitcher, he would have a lot of advantages. For example, guys like Bumgarner and Waingwright and Greinke definitely helping their win percentages by being competent at that plate. But over last 5 years there are just precious few pitchers that can hit even a little. So it's a big advantage he's giving up

https://bbref.com/pi/shareit/8Tvnh


Conclusion/Projection:

Ohtani will struggle at the plate, and if he plays too much in the field, it will limit his value as pitcher. My guess is within 2 years he becomes a full time pitcher and only bats occasionally and he will be unhappy.


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 Post subject: Re: Angels sign Ohtani
 Post Posted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:01 pm 
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Why can't he hit when he's pitching? The dh is optional. If he can average 6 innings per start he'd get 2-3 at bats. That also gives you an extra bat off the bench (the dh you wouldn't be starting the game with) who you could use in the late innings to pinch hit for his relievers.

Then on the days he didn't start you could dh him for some of those. It's not like the wear and tear of playing a position. It would be like pinch hitting 3-4 times a game.


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 Post subject: Re: Angels sign Ohtani
 Post Posted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:09 pm 
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David much more eloquently put what I was thinking (I just didn't post it yet). I like it.

Granted, a marathon game that was started by Ohtani might be an issue. It is the 13th inning, LAA have no PHs available.... and Oakland still has their DH.

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 Post subject: Re: Angels sign Ohtani
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:00 am 
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Well you are right guys, except the Angels have a 30 million dollar DH. Are they going to bench him 3-4 days a week now ? They would be a netter team if they did but I dont see that happening... yet


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 Post subject: Re: Angels sign Ohtani
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:17 am 
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Admittedly not the best fit, team-wise, but that expensive DH is also 38 coming off an 81 OPS + , - 1.8 WAR season. I doubt they would be any worse if he lost some at bats. They would be worse doing the other thing they're talking about--playing Pujols more at first (with CJ Cron losing at bats or being traded).

Buy out? (the remaining contract is 4 years/$114 Mil (yikes!) Plus there's a 10 year, $10 Mil a year personal services contract that starts when he's done playing. What the hell were they thinking?). Physically unable to preform due to plantar fasciitis with insurance covering it? Artie just eats it? There are creative solutions, but that's the Angels problem to sort out.


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