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 Post subject: Doug Fister signs with Texas, and spurs a little thought
 Post Posted: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:21 am 
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Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:27 pm
Posts: 12198
So I was looking at Doug Fisters career numbers. Obviously the guy has battled a lot of injuries and has struggled to stay on the mound. But to his credit, he has managed to pitch enough, and barely effectively enough the last few years to warrant a FA contract.

At his best, Fister was a groundball leaning pitcher who gave up a fair amount of hits, but didn't walk batters, didn't give up too many homers, and induced a somewhat above avg percentage of GBDP.

2010-2014 avg 188 IP, 122 ERA+ 6.2 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, and 9.0 H/9
2015-2017 avg 125 IP,,, 89 ERA+ 5.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, and 9.7 H/9


But this post isn't about Doug Fister's decline. However looking at his peak, I wondered, do guys like Doug fister circa 2010-2014 even exist any more ? Are there guys in this high K, high HR rate environment having success pitching to contact and suppressing homers ?

The answer seems to be they are a disappearing breed. Check this out

Since 2008, SP with 150 or more IP in a season, with less than 7 K/9 and less than 1.0 HR/9

original report so you can see names











RkYear#Matching
120178
220162
3201510
4201424
5201321
6201220
7201136
8201031
9200920
10200826


As you can see, this is a vanishing breed of pitcher. Whereas you used to see 20-30 such seasons a year from 2008-2014, over the last 3 seasons combined there have only been 20 such seasons. Thats a little misleading though, as there are fewer SP allowing less than 1.0 HR/9 overall,











RkYear#Matching
1201724
2201624
3201550
4201468
5201361
6201249
7201170
8201068
9200943
10200853


What we see is about a 50-60% drop in the number of SP that can maintain less than 1.0 HR, but a 80-90% drop in the number of LOW K guys that can keep HR/9 under 1.0

I think this is important to think about. The game has very much gone through a transformation like Tennis did years ago to a Serve and Volley power game. Think of the GB pitcher trying to suppress homers as the baseline player in Tennis, and the high K pitcher as the Serve and Volley Tennis player.

Changes in equipment, the ball especially, could shift things back in the other direction, and as we have learned, sometimes these changes can occur quickly. The HR binge started almost exactly post all star break, 2015.

2013 2.5%
2014 2.3%
2015 2.5% (1st half)
2015 2.9% (2nd half)

2016 3.0%
2017 3.3%

But for now, the best way to suppress homers is not to let the batter hit the ball. ANY kind of contact with the rabbit ball they are using now is likely to result in greater damage. Keep that in mind when considering pitchers you think the team should target, (or pitchers you want to target in Fantasy BB...lol)


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 Post subject: Re: Doug Fister signs with Texas, and spurs a little thought
 Post Posted: Mon Nov 27, 2017 9:18 pm 
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Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:27 am
Posts: 2331
Location: Portland, OR
Zach Davies is the first guy I thought of, but I think Fister in his prime was better. Tyler Chatwood was the second pitcher that came to mind.


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