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 Post subject: 2018 Hall of Fame Ballot
 Post Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 2:46 pm 
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Link to Baseball Reference with Stats


Right now I have 8 definite yes, and 6 Maybe's to sort through to fill out the final 2 of my ballot.

Obviously I am not eliminating anyone due to PED's, "proven" or suspected.

YES
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Chipper Jones
Mike Mussina
Curt Schilling
Jim Thome
Larry Walker
Scott Rolen

Maybe
Manny Ramirez
Edgar Martinez
Andruw Jones
Gary Sheffield
Vladimir Guerrero
Sammy Sosa

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Ballot
 Post Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 5:26 pm 
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So you are 100% against Trevor Hoffman?

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Ballot
 Post Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 5:55 pm 
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I'm not "against" him.

I just don't think there is any reliever on the ballot who was better or created more value than any of the players I mentioned.

Even when you use a leverage stat, such as WPA, Hoffman is still behind Schilling, Mussina, Halladay and Rivera, among pitchers not in HOF, and WPA is not really a great stat to try to assign value to begin with, but it does give relievers who pitch more in high leverage a boost.

There are only 3 hitters I listed that are not ahead of Hoffman in WPA as well, Rolen, Jones, and Sosa.

I'm sure Hoffman gets in, and it won't be a bad thing by any means. Like I said, I'm not against him. But really the save stat is a bullshit stat. If one of the sabrmetric guys came up with that today, and it was a brand new stat, there would be howling about how stupid the stat is.

Maybe some hybrid of WPA + WAR would be a good idea.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Ballot
 Post Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 6:01 pm 
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Ok, thanks. :cool:

I will post my "ballot" when I can. Probably tomorrow.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Ballot
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:30 pm 
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Im down to Vlad, Edgar & Manny

I do differentiate Manny somewhat as when he failed tests and was suspended it was under a testing system with known prescribed punishments, unlike players prior to 2004. So most likely its Vlad and Edgar for me.

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Last edited by shoewizard on Fri Dec 01, 2017 5:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Ballot
 Post Posted: Fri Dec 01, 2017 2:18 pm 
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Vlad cuz he actually played defense

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Ballot
 Post Posted: Fri Dec 01, 2017 2:31 pm 
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Career WAR

Manny 69.2
Edgar 68.3
Vlad 59.3

Can understand factoring in the PED-thing with Manny, but Edgar was far more valuable over his career than Vlad, defense or no defense.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Ballot
 Post Posted: Fri Dec 01, 2017 3:34 pm 
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I like Shoes 3 picks, but would not be surprised to see Clemens or Bonds in at some point, both were having HOF careers before other issues arrived
(I actually do not think McGwire or Sosa are HOF. There is a certain member of the 1919 Chicago White Soc that should be in, though)

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Ballot
 Post Posted: Fri Dec 01, 2017 5:55 pm 
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David B wrote:
Career WAR

Manny 69.2
Edgar 68.3
Vlad 59.3

Can understand factoring in the PED-thing with Manny, but Edgar was far more valuable over his career than Vlad, defense or no defense.


I'm not 100% sure about that. There are arguments that can be made that pulls them pretty much even, WAR notwithstanding.

One thing you need to look at is that there is only a 14 run difference between Vlad (-114) and Edgar (-128)for the positional adjustment, which doesn't really seem right. Vlad only DH'd the last two years of his career. If Edgar fields a position through his mid 30's he probably picks up some positional runs, but loses a lot of fielding runs, and more importantly, probably fails to stay in the lineup nearly as much.

Also if you look at peak 7 seasons, they are pretty much the same, Edgar 43, Vlad 41. And if you go by best 10 consecutive seasons, it's a push as well, (they both come in around 50-52 depending on which 10 years you use)

Don't get me wrong, I think I vote for Edgar, but Vlad has pretty much equal case, despite the WAR total.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Ballot
 Post Posted: Sat Dec 02, 2017 6:56 am 
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David B wrote:
Career WAR

Manny 69.2
Edgar 68.3
Vlad 59.3

Can understand factoring in the PED-thing with Manny, but Edgar was far more valuable over his career than Vlad, defense or no defense.

It's easier to play for longer and at a higher level when only DH'ing compared to patrolling the outfield, and Edgar had 2 additional seasons to accumulate counting stats. The career OPS+ is 147/140 and the gap in peak-7 years is only 2.5WAR, or 0.36 WAR/yr. Negligible difference. And Vlad's flashes of defensive brilliance were magnificent to watch. They're both on my ballot. And so is one of the 5 best defensive shortstops in the history of the game.

My ballot:
Edgar Martinez
Trevor Hoffman
Chipper
Thome
Vlad
Sheff
Mussina
Walker
Vizquel

I'm partial to players approaching cutoff for inclusion on the ballot. Especially Edgar.

I only voted for 9 cuz those were the only clear HoF'ers in my mind. To me, the HoF are the all-stars of the all-stars and their inclusion should be undeniable. Like it would diminish the HoF if they weren't in it. If it's a maybe, then I don't vote for them.

I'll vote for Bonds/Clemens in their 10th year on ballot.

EDIT*: Expanding on the PED/Bonds/Clemens/etc thing. Those that lied and displayed the least contrition deserve the least benefit of the doubt. I like the idea of those guys being reminded once every year that we know they're dirty cheating liars, and experiencing the anxiety they will feel as the 8th/9th yrs of not making it pass and their last year on the ballot approaches.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Ballot
 Post Posted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 4:27 pm 
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Joel Sherman @Joelsherman1
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Jack Morris and Alan Trammell elected to Hall of Fame via Modern Era Ballot, it a #Tigers kind of day

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Ballot
 Post Posted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:28 pm 
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Glad Trammell finally in. Deserving.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Ballot
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:34 am 
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so here is a list you can pick from and decide who you think are the most deserving position players still on the outside looking in.

Obviously some guys not eligible yet for voting, but I ran the list to show retired players up through 2016, so for example A Rod is on there.

Current search:
Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1901 to 2016, Retired (or inactive) Players, not a Hall Of Fame Member (as mlb players), (requiring WAA/pos>=25, WAR/pos>=50, oWAR>=0, OPS+>=0 and Rbat>=.01*Rfield), sorted by greatest WAA Position Players



























































PlayerWAA/posWAR/posoWAROPS+RbatRfieldPARHHRRBIBBSOSBCSBAOBPSLGOPS
Barry Bonds123.5162.4142.61821128.5174.81260622272935762199625581539514141.298.444.6071.051
Alex Rodriguez76.0117.7114.8140642.124.8122072021311569620861338228732976.295.380.550.930
Chipper Jones53.285.087.4141558.3-22.6106141619272646816231512140915046.303.401.529.930
Larry Walker48.272.662.2141420.093.98030135521603831311913123123076.313.400.565.965
Scott Rolen43.970.052.1122233.8175.48518121120773161287899141011849.281.364.490.855
Bobby Grich43.470.962.1125256.181.88220103318332248641087127810483.266.371.424.794
Lou Whitaker42.574.967.1117209.476.899671386236924410841197109914375.276.363.426.789
Shoeless Joe Jackson40.362.361.2170439.111.0569587317725479251923320281.356.423.517.940
Edgar Martinez38.568.366.4147531.517.28674121922473091261128312024930.312.418.515.933
Kenny Lofton38.268.257.2107139.8107.99235152824281307819451016622160.299.372.423.794
Jim Thome37.572.977.1147587.3-45.310313158323286121699174725481920.276.402.554.956
Reggie Smith37.464.555.9137311.077.78051112320203141092890103013786.287.366.489.855
Mark McGwire37.062.064.9163545.5-28.8766011671626583141413171596128.263.394.588.982
Carlos Beltran36.470.466.6121275.638.1105221522261742115361051169331249.281.354.492.845
Andruw Jones36.062.839.3111119.3235.78664120419334341289891174815259.254.337.486.823
Willie Randolph35.765.553.6104120.2113.794611239221054687124367527194.276.373.351.724
Manny Ramirez35.669.281.2154651.3-128.69774154425745551831132918133833.312.411.585.996
Jim Edmonds34.960.356.7132302.637.1798012511949393119999817296750.284.376.527.903
Dick Allen32.958.769.9156435.3-109.77315109918483511119894155613352.292.378.534.912
Todd Helton32.861.253.7133424.374.49453140125193691406133511753729.316.414.539.953
Dwight Evans32.866.959.8127352.766.310569147024463851384139116977859.272.370.470.840
Graig Nettles32.868.052.3110102.2139.710228119322253901314108812093236.248.329.421.750
Sal Bando32.561.458.0119206.136.382879821790242103910319237546.254.352.408.760
Buddy Bell32.466.147.3109110.0173.6100091151251420111068367765579.279.341.406.747
Bobby Bonds31.857.751.6129271.247.680901258188633210249141757461169.268.353.471.824
PlayerWAA/posWAR/posoWAROPS+RbatRfieldPARHHRRBIBBSOSBCSBAOBPSLGOPS
Keith Hernandez31.660.045.5128284.6116.88553112421821621071107010129863.296.384.436.821
Ken Boyer31.562.855.7116184.972.78272110421432821141713101710577.287.349.462.810
Sherry Magee31.059.056.7137324.725.085411112216983117673662444120.291.364.427.790
Bob Johnson30.957.255.5139381.618.0805012392051288128310758519664.296.393.506.899
Derek Jeter30.471.895.5115353.1-246.3126021923346526013111082184035897.310.377.440.817
Rafael Palmeiro30.171.666.7132430.848.012046166330205691835135313489740.288.371.515.885
Chet Lemon29.655.546.0121209.993.07874973187521588474910245876.273.355.442.797
Vladimir Guerrero29.459.358.5140429.17.1905913282590449149673798518194.318.379.553.931
Will Clark28.856.254.8137353.42.3828311862176284120593711906748.303.384.497.880
Pete Rose28.679.182.2118367.8-54.41589021654256160131415661143198149.303.375.409.784
Jim Wynn28.655.657.4129293.6-27.880111105166529196412241427225101.250.366.436.802
Robin Ventura28.355.940.8114130.5155.28271100618852941182107511792438.267.362.444.806
Bobby Abreu28.059.960.9128369.1-7.31008114532470288136314761840400128.291.395.475.870
Lance Berkman28.051.753.5144420.7-18.37814114619053661234120113008648.293.406.537.943
Sammy Sosa28.058.449.6128332.685.798961475240860916679292306234107.273.344.534.878
John Olerud27.358.048.1129332.6103.09063113922392551230127510161114.295.398.465.863
Brian Giles27.250.954.0136362.0-28.07836112118972871078118383510945.291.400.502.902
Minnie Minoso26.850.247.6130305.226.37712113619631861023814584205130.298.389.459.848
Joe Torre26.857.659.4129303.6-28.888029962342252118577910942329.297.365.452.817
Jeff Kent26.355.259.3123297.3-41.5953713202461377151880115229460.290.356.500.855
Willie Davis26.260.547.410643.8104.19822121725611821053418977398131.279.311.412.723
Cesar Cedeno26.152.752.9123224.0-14.0813310842087199976664938550179.285.347.443.790
Ron Cey26.053.550.0121212.219.4834497718683161139101212352429.261.354.445.799
Norm Cash25.952.049.9139336.238.27914104518203771104104310914330.271.374.488.862
Gary Sheffield25.760.379.9140560.7-195.31094716362689509167614751171253104.292.393.514.907
PlayerWAA/posWAR/posoWAROPS+RbatRfieldPARHHRRBIBBSOSBCSBAOBPSLGOPS
Jack Clark25.552.853.9137373.8-21.68230111818263401180126214417761.267.379.476.854



Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/11/2017.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Ballot
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:45 am 
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Here are the Pitchers

Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1901 to 2016, Retired (or inactive) Players, not a Hall Of Fame Member (as mlb players), (requiring WAR>=50, ERA+>=0, ERA>=0, FIP>=0 and K-BB%>=.01*HR9), sorted by greatest WAA Pitchers


Notable, that as you look at the list below, Jack Morris doesn't make the cut in any of the key metrics.

Look at below and then see where Morris would be with his 10 WAA, 44 WAR, 105 ERA+, 3.90 ERA, 3.94 FIP 6.8% SO/BB% and 0.9 HR/9






































PlayerWAA/pitchWARERA+ERAFIPK-BB%HR9GGSCGSHOWLW-L%SVIPHBBSOHR
Roger Clemens94.6139.41433.123.0915.3%0.6670970711846354184.65804916.2418515804672363
Curt Schilling54.180.71273.463.2318.1%0.965694368320216146.597223261.029987113116347
Mike Mussina48.682.71233.683.5713.9%0.955375365723270153.63803562.234607852813376
Roy Halladay40.765.61313.383.3913.5%0.774163906720203105.65912749.126465922117236
Kevin Brown40.568.51273.283.3311.1%0.574864767217211144.59403256.130799012397208
Rick Reuschel38.068.21143.373.227.3%0.5655752910226214191.52853548.135889352015221
Bret Saberhagen36.859.11263.343.2711.9%0.773993717616167117.58812562.224524711715218
David Cone35.661.71213.463.5712.6%0.804504195622194126.60612898.2250411372668258
Luis Tiant34.566.11143.303.479.1%0.8957348418749229172.571153486.1307511042416346
Mariano Rivera32.756.62052.212.7617.4%0.50111510008260.5776521283.2998286117371
Johan Santana32.350.71363.203.4417.2%0.98360284151013978.64112025.217265671988220
Dave Stieb31.157.01223.443.825.3%0.7044341210330176137.56232895.1257210341669225
Kevin Appier30.755.11213.743.819.7%0.804144023412169137.55202595.124259331994232
Tim Hudson30.457.21203.493.788.9%0.714824792613222133.62503126.229579172080248
Andy Pettitte30.260.91173.853.7410.1%0.78531521264256153.62603316.0344810312448288
Urban Shocker29.054.91243.173.542.9%0.4441231720028187117.615252681.22709657983130
Chuck Finley28.658.51153.853.919.4%0.865244676315200173.53603197.1306913322610304
Mark Buehrle28.459.21173.814.118.3%0.995184933310214160.57203283.134727341870361
Tommy Bridges27.052.51263.573.884.0%0.5842436220033194138.584102826.1267511921674181
Eddie Cicotte27.056.91232.382.544.3%0.0950236124935209148.585243226.02897827137432
Wilbur Wood26.052.21143.243.376.2%0.7065129711424164156.513572684.025827241411209
Billy Pierce25.953.11193.273.505.9%0.7758543319338211169.555333306.2298911781999284
Orel Hershiser25.151.71123.483.697.7%0.685104666825204150.57653130.1293910072014235
Jack Quinn25.059.01143.293.172.9%0.2475644324328247218.531563920.142388601329103
Jerry Koosman24.157.11103.363.268.5%0.6861252714033222209.515173839.1363511982556290
PlayerWAA/pitchWARERA+ERAFIPK-BB%HR9GGSCGSHOWLW-L%SVIPHBBSOHR
Mark Langston23.750.31073.973.939.4%0.944574288118179158.53102962.2272312892464311
Dutch Leonard22.751.41193.253.343.2%0.4464037519230191181.513453218.133047371170158
David Wells21.953.51084.133.9910.3%1.076604895412239157.604133439.036357192201407
Tommy John21.962.31113.343.385.0%0.5876070016246288231.55534710.1478312592245302
Larry Jackson21.152.51133.403.326.5%0.7155842914937194183.515203262.232068241709259
Kenny Rogers20.051.11074.274.385.6%0.92762474369219156.584283302.2345711751968339
Frank Tanana20.057.51063.663.798.6%0.9663861614334240236.50414188.1406312552773448
Bobo Newsom19.951.71073.983.812.1%0.4960048324631211222.487213759.1376917322082206
Jamie Moyer12.950.21034.254.477.4%1.156966383310269209.56304074.0423111552441522



Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/11/2017.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Ballot
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 11, 2017 1:42 pm 
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YES

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Chipper Jones
Mike Mussina
Curt Schilling
Trevor Hoffman
Edgar Martinez
Scott Rolen
Jim Thome
Larry Walker


Maybe
Manny Ramirez
Andruw Jones
Sammy Sosa

Waiting
Vladimir Guerrero
Gary Sheffield



Jones and Sosa are the ones I have the hardest time with making strong cases for admitting. My biggest issue with Manny is that he was busted after the testing and penalties were in place, otherwise I would have him in the Bonds/Clemens category.

I remember, before all the PED stuff came up, I was already being beat up over wanting to exclude Big Mac. I just never thought he was a HoF player. HoVG? Sure. But not HoF.

The only reason I have a "waiting" category, is that there is a silly 10-player limit, and some of the names on the list I am including need more attention, like Edgar, or are just to no-brainer in my book to exclude. Also, I can at least see the arguments for keeping either of those two out, even if I do think those arguments are a bit thin, especially when comparing to what they brought to the game for almost an entire generation.


Nice to see Trammell finally get in. That's one HoF unjust snub rectified.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Ballot
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 11, 2017 4:07 pm 
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Good Ballot. I don't personally see a lot of separation between Hoffman and Billy Wagner and Joe Nathan. But I'm ok with a HOF with Hoffman in it as well.

See this

First pitcher is Wagner, second is Nathan, 3rd is Hoffman

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Ballot
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 11, 2017 5:27 pm 
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I do wish Wagner had lasted a bit longer than he did. I always liked him. I sometimes forget just how protected Hoffman was, playing under Bochy. With as long as he played and for as many saves and opportunities as Hoffman eventually wound up with, one thing I find somewhat underwhelming is his workload. I mean, I've always known he was sheltered, but sometimes I forget just how much so.

Of course, he might be left on the outside looking in until at least 2019, letting Rivera get in on the first ballot next year to lead the way. I'm not a fan of that sort of thinking, but I know there are writers out there who are.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Ballot
 Post Posted: Sat Dec 30, 2017 10:44 am 
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Willie McCovey, weighs in on Barry Bonds, PED's, and Joe Morgan's letter.

Quote:
As for Bonds’ link to PEDs, McCovey said, “Guys took things ever since baseball existed. It may not have been steroids, but guys took things like those greenies and stuff so they could play the next day. You’re telling me everybody is clean as a whistle? You played against guys who were doing the same thing he was doing, so what the heck?”


article link

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Ballot
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:12 pm 
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FWIW.....

I was thinking about how the “steroid guys, cheaters” (bonds, sosa, clemens, big mac, you know the names) are outsiders looking into the hall of fame.

so answer me this....

How do players and managers that directly benefited from these exact “cheaters” got in.

Maddox, Glavine, Smoltz (all believed are clean) are in the HoF because for the most part the amount of wins they have (and saves). But how many of those wins were helped by a home run or an rbi from know user in ken caminiti.

Bobby cox is in the same situation. Now he, torre and larussa are all in because of games they won as managers. Well those three have W’s because of steroid guys.
Torre - clemens, giambi, arod
Cox- see above
Larussa- big mac

These are just afew examples. Im sure there are more

My point is, how can the “cheaters” continue to get “banded” while others who were directly HELPED by thier “cheating” are in the HoF

If You put the “winners” of thier cheating in the hall should the “cheaters” themselves also be in?


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Hall of Fame Ballot
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:34 pm 
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A point, he has.

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